Pure Storage (Pure Storage) Predictability Rank

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What is Pure Storage Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pure Storage Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pure Storage (Pure Storage) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Pure Storage Inc (NYSE:PSTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6PU:Germany

Address

650 Castro Street, Suite 400, Mountain View, CA, USA, 94041

Website

http://www.purestorage.com

Pure Storage Inc is a US-based company that provides an enterprise data storage platform that transforms business through a dramatic increase in performance and reduction in complexity and costs. It generates revenue from two sources: product revenue which includes the sale of integrated storage hardware and embedded operating system software and; subscription services revenue which includes Evergreen Storage subscriptions, a unified subscription which includes Pure as-a-Service, and Cloud Block Store, and Portworx. Subscription services revenue also includes professional services offerings such as installation and implementation consulting services.

Executives

P. Kevan Krysler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Roxanne Taylor	director	PURE STORAGE, INC., 650 CASTRO ST #400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
Gregory Tomb	director	650 CASTRO ST, SUITE 400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
Mona Chu	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	650 CASTRO ST #400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
Mallun Yen	director	1 MARKET PLAZA, STEUART TOWER, SUITE 800, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Brown Andrew William Fraser	director	C/O GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE, INC., 970 PARK PL, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
John Francis Murphy	director	2250 E. IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Dan Fitzsimons	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O PURE STORAGE, INC., 650 CASTRO ST #400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
Ajay Singh	officer: Chief Product Officer	PURE STORAGE, INC., 650 CASTRO ST #400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
Anita M Sands	director	350 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Scott Dietzen	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PURE STORAGE, INC., 650 CASTRO STREET, SUITE 400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
Paul S Mountford	officer: Chief Operating Officer	950 WEST MAUDE AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Timothy Riitters	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PURE STORAGE, INC., 650 CASTRO STREET, SUITE 400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041
Taylor Susan J.s.	director	C/O LINKEDIN CORPORATION, 2029 STIERLIN COURT, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
John Colgrove	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O PURE STORAGE, INC., 650 CASTRO STREET, SUITE 400, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94041