RIBT (RiceBran Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is RiceBran Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RiceBran Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

RiceBran Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

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RiceBran Technologies Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » RiceBran Technologies (OTCPK:RIBT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

25420 Kuykendahl Road, Suite B300, Tomball, TX, USA, 77375

Website

https://www.ricebrantech.com

RiceBran Technologies is a specialty ingredient company focused on developing, producing, and marketing products derived from traditional and ancient small grains. It creates and produces products utilizing proprietary processes to deliver improved nutrition, ease of use, and extended shelf-life, while addressing consumer demand for all-natural, non-GMO, and organic products. Its existing and target customers are food and animal nutrition manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers domestically and internationally. Its products includes Rice Bran and Grain Products.

Executives

Eric Tompkins	director, officer: Executive Chairman	25420 KUYKENDAHL ROAD, SUITE B300, TOMBALL TX 77375
William J Keneally	officer: Interim CFO	28601 CHAGRIN BLVD., CLEVELAND OH 44122
Continental Grain Co	10 percent owner	767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Jean Heggie	director	25 ALGONQUIN WOOD PLACE, SAINT LOUIS MO 63122
William Black	director	3828 BOUQUET RD, WILDWOOD MO 63069
David I. Chemerow	director	PLAYBOY ENT., INC. - H. SHAPIRO, 680 N LAKE SHORE DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60611
Todd T Mitchell	officer: Executive Vice President	299 S. MAIN STREET, STE.2370, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Brent David Rosenthal	director	C/O WR HUFF ASSET MANAGEMENT, 67 PARK PLACE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Ari David Gendason	director	1330 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, SUITE 250, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Peter Bradley	director	777 E. WISCONSIN AVE., MILWAUKEE WI 53202
David Goldman	director	1330 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, SUITE 250, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Beth L Bronner	director	2928 RAMCO STREET, SUITE 120, C/O RICEBRAN TECHNOLOGIES, WEST SACRAMENTO CA 95691
Brent Robert Rystrom	officer: CFO and EVP	1330 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, SUITE 250, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Baruch Halpern	director	C/O ION NETWORKS INC, 120 CORPORATE BLVD, S PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Henk Hoogenkamp	director	1330 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, SUITE 250, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380