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RMPLP.PFD (RiverNorth Capital andome Fund) Predictability Rank


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What is RiverNorth Capital andome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


RiverNorth Capital andome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

RiverNorth Capital andome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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RiverNorth Capital andome Fund Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
360 South Rosemary Avenue, Suite 1420, West Palm Beach, FL, USA, 33401
RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek a high level of current income by investing in credit instruments, including a portfolio of securities of specialty finance and other financial companies.
Executives
Patrick W. Galley director, officer: PRESIDENT 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE, SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Lisa Bruckert Mougin director C/O RIVERNORTH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE., SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Janae Stanton other: Portfolio Manager 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE., SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
John Wayne Hutchens director 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE, SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
David Swanson director 325 N. LASALLE ST., SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jerry Raio director 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE, SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Rivernorth Capital Management, Llc other: Investment Adviser 360 S. ROSEMARY AVE, SUITE 1420, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Brian H Schmucker other: OFFICER OF THE INVEST. ADVISER 325 NORTH LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
Bartow Philip K Iii other: PORTFOLIO MANAGER 325 NORTH LASALLE ST., SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
John S. Oakes director 325 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
John K Carter director 433 W. VAN BUREN STREET, SUITE 1150-E, CHICAGO IL 60607
Jonathan M. Mohrhardt officer: CFO and Treasurer 325 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
Marcus L Collins officer: CCO and Secretary 325 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
Fred G Steingraber director 325 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654
James G. Kelley director 325 N. LASALLE STREET, SUITE 645, CHICAGO IL 60654