ScanSource (ScanSource) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

What is ScanSource Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ScanSource Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ScanSource Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ScanSource's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ScanSource (ScanSource) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » ScanSource Inc (NAS:SCSC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SC3:Germany

Address

6 Logue Court, Greenville, SC, USA, 29615

Website

https://www.scansource.com

ScanSource Inc provides value-added services for technology manufacturers and sells to resellers in specialty technology markets. The firm's operations are organized in two segments: Specialty Technology Solutions and Modern Communications and Cloud. It generates maximum revenue from the Specialty Technology Solutions segment. The Specialty Technology Solutions segment includes the Company's business in mobility and barcode, POS, payments, security and networking technologies. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Michael L Baur	officer: President and CEO	6 LOGUE COURT, GREENVILLE SC 29615
Peter C Browning	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
Brandy Ford	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	6 LOGUE COURT, GREENVILLE SC 29615
John Charles Eldh	officer: Sr. EVP & Chief Revenue Off.	6 LOGUE COURT, GREENVILLE SC 29615
Vernon J Nagel	director	1330 W. FULTON STREET, SUITE 350, CHICAGO IL 60607
Shana C Smith	officer: Sr. EVP & Chief Legal Officer	1875 EXPLORER ST SUITE 800, RESTON VA 20190
Charles R Whitchurch	director	143 FULLER LANE, WINNDKER IL 60093
Charles Alexander Mathis	officer: Vice-President & CFO	627 ISLAND PARK DRIVE, DANIEL ISLAND SC 29492
Rachel Hayden	officer: Senior Executive VP & CIO	6 LOGUE COURT, GREENVILLE SC 29615
Michael J Grainger	director	C/O INGRAM MICRO INC WORLD WIDE L, 1600 E ST ANDREW PLACE, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Stephen Jones	officer: Sr. EVP & CFO	6 LOGUE COURT, GREENVILLE SC 29615
Emory Frank Edward Jr.	director	2809 SHARON VIEW ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28210
Jeffrey R Rodek	director	4151 GULF SHORE BLVD N, PH2, NAPLES FL 34103
Matthew Dean	officer: VP and General Counsel	101 LEDGESTONE WAY, GREER SC 29651
Gerald Lyons	officer: SVP & Principal Acctg Officer	6 LOGUE CT., GREENVILLE SC 29615