SEE (Sealed Air) Predictability Rank

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What is Sealed Air Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sealed Air Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sealed Air Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sealed Air Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Sealed Air Corp (NYSE:SEE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0L4F:UK SDA:Germany

Address

2415 Cascade Pointe Boulevard, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28208

Website

https://www.sealedair.com

Sealed Air is organized via two reporting segments. Food care includes food packaging products like Cryovac, Darfresh, and OptiDure aimed primarily at meats. Product care includes Sealed Air's Bubble Wrap, Instapak, Jiffy mailers, and shrink film packaging systems that cater to industrial and e-commerce applications.

Executives

Doheny Edward L Ii	director, officer: COO and CEO-Designate	100 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 2780, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Veronika Johnson	officer: CAO and Controller	9696 SADDLE AVENUE, MARVIN NC 28173
Clay M Johnson	director	2415 CASCADE, C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Dustin J. Semach	officer: CFO Designate	1 FANATICAL PLACE, CITY OF WINDCREST, SAN ANTONIO TX 78218
Jerry R. Whitaker	director	TWO NORTHSHORE CENTER, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Zubaid Ahmad	director	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BLVD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Sergio A Pupkin	officer: Vice President	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BOULEVARD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Emile Z. Chammas	officer: Senior Vice President	SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 200 RIVERFRONT BOULEVARD, ELMWOOD PARK NJ 07407
Henry R. Keizer	director	MONTPELIER HOUSE, 94 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Kevin C Berryman	director	521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Shuxian Susan Yang	officer: Vice President, Treasurer	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BOULEVARD, CHARLOTTE NY 28208
Jannick Thomsen	officer: VP, Chf PPL & Digital Officer	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BOULEVARD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Gerd Wichmann	officer: President, EMEA	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BOULEVARD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Tobias Grasso	officer: President, Americas	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BOULEVARD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Alessandra Faccin Assis	officer: President, APAC	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415, CHARLOTTE NC 28208