SEVAP.PFD (Sevcon) Predictability Rank

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What is Sevcon Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sevcon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sevcon Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sevcon Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Sevcon Inc (OTCPK:SEVAP.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.sevcon.com

Sevcon Inc through its wholly-owned subsidiaries is engaged in designing and selling, under the Sevcon name, motor controls for zero emission electric and hybrid vehicles.

Executives

Bassi Holding S.r.l.	10 percent owner	VIA MENSA 3/2, S. MARIA IN FABRIAGO, LUGO (RA) L6 48022
Andrea Bassi	10 percent owner, officer: General Manager, Bassi S.r.l	VIA MENSA, 3/2 S MARIA IN FABRIAGO, LUGO RA L6 48022
David Sidlow	officer: Managing Director, Sevcon Ltd	KINGSWAY SOUTH, GATESHEAD, TYNE AND WEAR X0 NE11 0QA
Meson Constructive Capital Lp	10 percent owner	12 ARANA CIRCLE, SAUSALITO CA 94965
Matthew Goldfarb	director	C/O DIEBOLD NIXDORF, INCORPORATED, 5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Ryan J. Morris	director	531 E. STATE ST., ITHACA NY 14850
Glenn Angiolillo	director	C/O NYMAGIC INC, 919 THIRD AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Walter Milton Schenker	director	1130 ROUTE 46, SUITE 22, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Frederick A Wang	director	155 NORTHBORO ROAD, SOUTHBOROUGH MA 01772
William J Ketelhut	director	C/O ENERGY CONVERSION DEVICES INC, 2956 WATERVIEW DR, ROCHESTER HILLS MI 48309
Paul Neil Farquhar	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	3 DUXBURY PARK, FATFIELD, WASHINGTON X0 NE38 8BJ
Marvin G Schorr	director	NINE HAMPSHIRE STREET, MANSFIELD MA 02048-9171
Bernard F Start	director
Paul B Rosenberg	director
Paul O Stump	director	C/O TECH/OPS SEVCON, INC., 155 NORTHBORO ROAD, SOUTHBOROUGH MA 01772