SLMNP.PFD (Lyondellbasell Advanced Polymers) Predictability Rank

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What is Lyondellbasell Advanced Polymers Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lyondellbasell Advanced Polymers Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lyondellbasell Advanced Polymers Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Lyondellbasell Advanced Polymers Inc (OTCPK:SLMNP.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1221 McKinney Street, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77010

Website

https://www.lyondellbasell.com

Lyondellbasell Advanced Polymers Inc manufactures and sells a variety of plastics and chemical-based products. The firm's product portfolio includes Engineered Thermoplastics, Masterbatch, Engineered Composites, Specialty Powders, and Distribution Services. The company organizes itself into four main segments by geography. Europe, Middle East, and Africa segment generate more revenue than any other segment. The other segments are the United States and Canada, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific.

Executives

Carol S Eicher	director	ROHM AND HAAS COMPANY, 100 INDEPENDENCE MALL WEST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106
Allen A Spizzo	director	1313 N MARKET ST, WILMINGTON DE 19894
Kathleen M. Oswald	director	3637 RIDGEWOOD RD, AKRON OH 44308
Gary D. Phillips	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	3637 RIDGEWOOD RD., AKRON OH 44333
John W Richardson	officer: EVP - Chief Financial Officer	THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY, 1144 EAST MARKET STREET, AKRON OH 44316-0001
Andreas K Gunther	officer: EVP - Chief Human Resources	3637 RIDGEWOOD ROAD, FAIRLAWN OH 44333
Brent Middleton	officer: SVP GM USCAN	1228 TITAN WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Frank Roederer	officer: SVP & GM Engineered Composites	3637 RIDGEWOOD RD, FAIRLAWN X1 44333
Rainer Schewe	officer: EVP Global Supply Chain	3637 RIDGEWOOD RD, FAIRLAWN X1 44333
Andrean Horton	officer: Senior Corp. Counsel	3637 RIDGEWOOD RD, FAIRLAWN X1 44333
Kevin T Andrews	officer: SVP - GM Engineered Composites	3637 RIDGEWOOD RD, FAIRLAWN OH 44333
Kristopher R Westbrooks	officer: VP - Controller and CAO	3637 RIDGEWOOD ROAD, FAIRLAWN OH 44333
Stacy R Walter	officer: VP - Internal Audit	3550 WEST MARKET STREET, AKRON OH 44333
Timothy J Mcdannold	officer: Treasurer - Dir.Risk Mngmnt.	5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Heinrich Lingnau-schneider	officer: VP & General Manager - Europe	3550 WEST MARKET STREET, AKRON OH 44333