SenesTech (SenesTech) Predictability Rank

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What is SenesTech Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SenesTech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SenesTech (SenesTech) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » SenesTech Inc (NAS:SNES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

23460 N 19th Avenue, Suite 110, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85027

Website

https://www.senestech.com

SenesTech Inc is a United States-based biotech platform and research company engaged in developing technology for managing animal pest populations through fertility control. The company provides its solutions to the animal market, commercial markets, and food markets.

Executives

Joel Lee Fruendt	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SENESTECH, INC., 23460 N. 19TH AVE., STE 110, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Grandinetti Phillip Nicholas Iii	director	23460 N. 19TH AVE SUITE 110, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Kathleen Claire Kavanagh	director	23460 N. 19TH AVE SUITE 110, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Jamie Bechtel Morrison	director	3140 N. CADEN COURT SUITE 1, FLAGSTAFF AZ 86004
Jacob Steven Leach	director	6340 SEQUENCE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Delphine Francois Chiavarini	director	3140 N. CADEN COURT SUITE 1, FLAGSTAFF AZ 86004
Kenneth S Siegel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	40 STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS, 111 WESTCHESTER AVE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Nicole C Williams	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	23460 N 19TH AVE SUITE 110, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Steven C. Krause	officer: EVP, Sales and Marketing	23460 N. 19TH AVE STE 110, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Loretta Powers Mayer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chief Scientific Officer	C/O SENESTECH, INC., 3140 N. CADEN COURT, SUITE 1, FLAGSTAFF AZ 86004
Cheryl Ann Dyer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres. & Chief Research Officer	C/O SENESTECH, INC., 3140 N. CADEN COURT, SUITE 1, FLAGSTAFF AZ 86004
Edward Albe	officer: SVP of Commercialization	3140 N. CADEN COURT SUITE 1, FLAGSTAFF AZ 96004
Julia Ann Williams	director	C/O SENESTECH, INC., 3140 N. CADEN COURT, SUITE 1, FLAGSTAFF AZ 86004
Andrew Altman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SENESTECH, INC., 3140 N. CADEN COURT, SUITE 1, FLAGSTAFF AZ 86004
Grover T Wickersham	director, officer: Vice Chairman	430 CAMBRIDGE AVENUE, SUITE 100, PALO ALTO CA 94306