What is Southern Co Predictability Rank?
3 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Southern Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Southern Co Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
30 Ivan Allen Jr. Boulevard, Northwest, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30308
Southern is one of the largest utilities in the U.S. The company serves 9 million customers with vertically integrated electric utilities in three states and natural gas distribution utilities in four states. It owns 50 gigawatts of rate-regulated generating capacity, primarily for serving customers in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. Subsidiary Southern Power owns 13 gigawatts of natural gas generation and renewable energy across the U.S. and sells the electricity primarily under long-term contracts.
Executives
| Spainhour Sterling A Jr. |
officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer & CCO |
4370 PEACHTREE ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30319 |
| Kerr, Ii James Y |
officer: Executive VP & General Counsel |
30 IVAN ALLEN JR. BLVD., NW, ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Bryan D Anderson |
officer: EVP & Pres. External Affairs |
30 IVAN ALLEN JR. BLVD. NW, ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Anthony L Wilson |
officer: President, Mississippi Power |
30 IVAN ALLEN JR. BLVD, ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Sloane N Drake |
officer: EVP, CHRO |
30 IVAN ALLEN JR BLVD NW, ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Kimberly S, Greene |
officer: President & CEO, SCS |
30 IVAN ALLEN JR. BLVD., NW, ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Christopher Cummiskey |
officer: EVP & CCCS Officer |
241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD., ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Stephen E Kuczynski |
officer: Pres. & CEO, Southern Nuclear |
30 IVAN ALLEN JR. BLVD, NW, ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| David P. Poroch |
officer: Comptroller |
241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD., ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Shantella E. Cooper |
director |
241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD., NW, ATLANTA GA 30308 |
| Martin Bernard Davis |
officer: EVP and CIO |
520 GERVAIS STREET, C/O SOUTH STATE CORP, COLUMBIA SC 29201 |
| Thomas A Fanning |
officer: CFO |
|
| Lizanne Thomas |
director |
1420 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 800, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| David E Meador |
director |
ONE ENERGY PLAZA, DETROIT MI 48226 |
| James Jeffrey Peoples |
officer: Chairman, President & CEO, APC |
600 NORTH 18TH STREET, BIRMINGHAM AL 35203 |
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