SITO Mobile (SITO Mobile) Predictability Rank

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What is SITO Mobile Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SITO Mobile Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SITO Mobile (SITO Mobile) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » SITO Mobile Ltd (OTCPK:STTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Town Square Place, Suite 204, Jersey City, NJ, USA, 07310

Website

https://www.sitomobile.com

SITO Mobile Ltd operates a mobile location-based advertising platform serving businesses, advertisers, and brands. Business activity of the group is operated SITO Location Based Advertising and SITO Mobile Messaging source. SITO Location Based Advertising displays advertisements and videos on behalf of advertisers including various features, such as geo-fencing, verified walk-in, behavioral targeting, and analytics and optimization; and SITO Mobile Messaging is a platform for building and controlling tailored programs including messaging and customer incentive programs. Its platform and tools are designed to enable large brands or anyone with substantial reach to utilize the mobile device as a new means to communicate.

Executives

Stephen D Baksa	director
Scott L Kauffman	officer: Chief Executive Officer	260 CHURCHILL AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Priore Mark Del	other: Former Chief Financial Officer	C/O SITO MOBILE, LTD., 100 TOWN SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 204, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Itzhak Fisher	director	767 FIFTH AVE STE 4300, NEW YORK NY 10153
Matthew Stecker	director	711 SOUTH BRYN MAWR AVE., BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Thomas Thekkethala	director	9777 PYRAMID COURT, SUITE 100, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Brent David Rosenthal	director	C/O WR HUFF ASSET MANAGEMENT, 67 PARK PLACE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Betsy J Bernard	director	711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392-0300
Lawrence Firestone	officer: Interim CFO	C/O CVD EQUIPMENT CORPORATION, C/O CVD EQUIPMENT CORPORATION, CENTRAL ISLIP NY 11722
Lowell W Robinson	director	470 WEST END AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10024
Karen Singer	10 percent owner	212 VACCARO DRIVE, CRESSKILL NJ 07626
Philip B Livingston	director	1241 EAST MAIN ST, STAMFORD CT 06902
Stuart Levine	director	3 HUNTINGTON QUADRANGLE, SUITE 200S, MELVILLE NY 11747-8943
James Larry Nelson	director	2747 PARADISE ROAD, PH2804, LAS VEGAS NV 89109