What is Servotronics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Servotronics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Servotronics Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1110 Maple Street, Post Office Box 300, Elma, NY, USA, 14059
Servotronics Inc is a U.S based company that designs, manufactures, and markets servo valves, including torque motor, hydraulic, and pneumatic valves. The company has single reportable segment which is aerospace Its products are marketed and sold throughout the United States and in select foreign markets. These products are sold to commercial aviation manufacturers, government prime contractors, government subcontractors, and end-users.
Executives
| James C Takacs |
officer: Vice President |
1110 MAPLE STREET, PO BOX 300, ELMA NY 14059 |
| Beaver Hollow Wellness, Llc |
10 percent owner |
401 EAST AMHERST ST, BUFFALO NY 14215 |
| Robert Fraass |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1110 MAPLE STREET, PO BOX 300, ELMA NY 14059 |
| Kenneth D Trbovich |
officer: President |
1110 MAPLE STREET, ELMA NY 14059 |
| Estate Of Nicholas D. Trbovich, Sr. |
10 percent owner |
960 PORTERVILLE ROAD, EAST AURORA NY 14052 |
| Brent D Baird |
10 percent owner |
1350 ONE M&T PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203-2396 |
| Evan H Wax |
director |
44 CHERRY LANE, MADISON CT 06443 |
| Founders Software, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
401 EAST AMHERST ST, BUFFALO NY 14215 |
| Snyder Paul L. Iii |
10 percent owner |
401 EAST AMHERST ST, BUFFALO NY 14215 |
| Edward C Cosgrove |
director |
525 DELAWARE AVENUE, BUFFALO NY 14202 |
| Lucion P Gygax |
director |
1110 MAPLE STREET, ELMA NY 14059 |
| Christopher M Marks |
director |
360 DELAWARE AVENUE, SUITE 230, BUFFALO NY 14202 |
| Farrell William F Jr. |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1110 MAPLE STREET, PO BOX 300, ELMA NY 14059 |
| Karen L Howard |
director |
C/O SERVOTRONICS, INC., 1110 MAPLE STREET, ELMA NY 14059 |
| Jason T Bear |
director |
5301 N. COMMERCE AVE., SUITE C, MOORPARK CA 93021 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
SVT has been successfully added to your