GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » U-Swirl Inc (OTCPK:SWRL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

SWRL (U-Swirl) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is U-Swirl Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

U-Swirl Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

U-Swirl Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of U-Swirl's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

U-Swirl Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » U-Swirl Inc (OTCPK:SWRL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
KONAQ BOM:507522 STRZ NSE:CKPLEISURE BOM:539659 GIGL BOM:539273 WAR:SKN TSXV:GB HKSE:08272 DBUB WAR:MXP BDVB WAR:MRH WAR:SFS ROCO:2740 NZSE:GSH LSE:TAST HKSE:08232 WAR:MEX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
265 Turner Drive, Durango, CO, USA, 81303
Website
http://www.u-swirl.com
U-Swirl Inc is engaged in the restaurant business. The company offers U-Swirl Frozen Yogurt concept, which offers guests a choice of frozen yogurt by providing an assortment of non-fat and low-fat flavors, including tart, traditional and no-sugar-added (NSA) options and various toppings, including seasonal fresh fruit, sauces, candy, and granola. cafes. The company's U-Swirl-n-Go Store franchises are limited-product stores within non-traditional locations, such as convenience stores, airports, hotels, and other mass gathering areas.
Executives
Clyde Wm Engle director 265 TURNER DR, DURANGO CO 81303
Bryan J Merryman director 265 TURNER DRIVE, DURANGO CO 81303
Scott G Capdevielle director 265 TURNER DRIVE, DURANGO CO 81303
Franklin E Crail director 265 TURNER DRIVE, DURANGO CO 81303
M Kinney Jeremy officer: CFO and Treasurer 265 TURNER DRIVE, DURANGO CO 81303
Paulson Capital Corp other: See Footnote (1) 222 THIRD STREET, SUITE 2241, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Jacqueline M Paulson other: See Footnote (1) 811 SW NAITO PARKWAY, SUITE 200, PORTLAND OR 97204
Paulson Chester L F other: See Footnote (1) 811 SW NAITO PARKWAY, SUITE 200, PORTLAND OR 97204

U-Swirl Headlines

No Headlines