Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co (SZSE:002422) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co (SZSE:002422) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (SZSE:002422) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No.36 West Baihua Road, Qingyang District, Chengdu, CHN, 610071

Website

http://www.kelun.com

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is a China-based Pharmaceutical company mainly focused on the production and sales of injection products, including products for glucose injection and sodium chloride injection. It manufactures and sells high-volume injections (infusions), small-volume injections (water needles), sterile powder injections (containing powdered and freeze-dried powder). Its products include tablets, capsules, capsules, granules, oral liquids, peritoneal dialysis fluids, raw material medicines, medical packaging materials, medical instruments, and antibiotic intermediates.

Executives

Lai De Gui	Executives
Feng Hao	Directors, executives
Liu Si Chuan	Directors, executives
Wang Jing Yi	Directors, executives
Wan Yang Yu	Executives
Ge Jun You	Executives
Wu Zhong Hua	Executives
Wan Peng	Supervisors
Tan Hong Bo	Executives
Liu Ge Xin	Director
Huang Xin	Securities Affairs Representative
Ge Tao	Executives
Pan Hui	Directors, executives
Zhou Xiao Dong	Executives
Zheng Chang Yan	Supervisors

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co (SZSE:002422) Headlines

No Headlines