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Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co (SZSE:300091) Predictability Rank


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What is Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co Ltd (SZSE:300091) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:688090 SZSE:300540 SHSE:603956 SHSE:603819 SZSE:301598 SHSE:605100 SHSE:688255 SZSE:002689 SHSE:601218 SHSE:603656 XTER:SIE XPAR:SU ETN GEV PH OSTO:ATCO A ITW TSE:7011 XTER:ENR EMR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Number 135 Middle Zhongxiu Road, Chongchuan District, Jiangsu Province, Nantong, CHN, 226001
Website
http://www.jtlfans.com
Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co Ltd, formerly Jiangsu Jin Tong Ling Fluid Machinery Technology Co Ltd researches develop, manufactures, sells, and services fluid machinery and compressors primarily in China. The company offers centrifugal air compressors; high-speed single-stage centrifugal and maglev blowers; steam compressors and turbines; turbojets; and multistage centrifugal blowers.
Executives
Chen Da Peng Director
Feng Ming Fei Executives
Cao Xiao Jian Supervisors
Shen Zhi Gang Directors, executives
Jin Zhen Ming Executives
Ji Wei Dong Directors, executives
Ji Wei Directors, executives
Wang Xia Executives
Xu Huan Jun Supervisors
Ou Yang Neng Supervisors
Xu Guo Hua Executives
Feng Lan Jiang Executives
Ma Xiao Kui Supervisors
Qian Jin Lin Executives
Cao Ping Directors, executives

Jin Tong Ling Technology Group Co Headlines

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