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Truking Technology (SZSE:300358) Predictability Rank


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What is Truking Technology Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Truking Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Truking Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Truking Technology's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Truking Technology Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Truking Technology Ltd (SZSE:300358) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:603205 SZSE:301580 SHSE:605369 SZSE:300453 SHSE:688410 SHSE:688677 SZSE:300981 SHSE:688606 SZSE:000931 SZSE:301093 ISRG XPAR:EL BDX TSE:7741 XSWX:ALC RMD TSE:4543 OCSE:COLO B XPAR:DIM XSWX:STMN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No 1 Xinkang Road, Ningxiang, Yutan Town, Hunan Province, Changsha, CHN, 410600
Website
http://www.truking.com
Truking Technology Ltd operates in the pharmaceutical and medical equipment industry. It develops, designs, manufactures, sells and provides services for aqueous pharmaceutical equipment. The company offers solutions for Fluid Processing System, Ampoule Injectable Products Production, Vial Injectable Products Production, Plastic Bottle Blow-Fill-Seal Production, Cartridge Production, and others. It sells its products in China, and also exports it to the other countries.
Executives
Ceng Fan Yun Directors, executives
Yang Wen Lu Director
Tang Yue Director
Zhou Fei Yue Directors, Directors, and Executives
Zheng Qi Ping Executives
Ceng He Qing Executives
Qiu Yong Mou Supervisors
Li Gang Executives
Zhou Jing Ying Executives
Liu Gui Lin Supervisors

Truking Technology Headlines

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