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Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co (SZSE:300597) Predictability Rank


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What is Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Ltd (SZSE:300597) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:603637 SZSE:300778 SHSE:603909 SZSE:300977 SHSE:603458 SHSE:603017 SZSE:002887 SHSE:603176 SZSE:300826 SZSE:002822 XPAR:DG NSE:LT PWR SHSE:601668 TSX:WSP EME HKSE:01800 SHSE:601390 XPAR:EN XMAD:ACS
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Nanhu Xuefu Classic Community, Room 701, Building 9, Chaoyang District, Jilin Province, Changchun, CHN, 130012
Website
http://www.jlucdi.com
Jilin Jlu Communication Design Institute Co Ltd is a China based company engaged in consulting, surveying and design of communication engineering projects. Its services include planning, feasibility study, evaluation, scheme design, project proposal, and technical specification. The business areas of the company comprise Service area, Professional scope, and Service object. Its service scope comprises core network, data network, support network, mobile communication, microwave communication, wireless network optimization, optical fiber communication, communication power supply, communication line, communication pipeline, CATV, intelligent building system integration, broadband fiber access, and smart city construction among others.
Executives
Lin Jia Yun Director
Ma Shu Cai Directors, executives
Wu Liang Chun Directors, executives
Zhou Wei Directors, Directors, and Executives
Xia Xi Gang Executives
Jin Yi Jing Executives
Geng Yan Securities Affairs Representative
Qiao Yuan Zhi Supervisors
Li Bao Yan Supervisors

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