GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co Ltd (SZSE:300598) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co (SZSE:300598) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co (SZSE:300598) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co Ltd (SZSE:300598) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:603918 SZSE:002093 SZSE:300846 SZSE:002987 SZSE:300170 SHSE:600751 SZSE:300271 SHSE:688225 SZSE:002649 SZSE:300738 ACN NSE:TCS IBM NSE:INFY FI NSE:HCLTECH CTSH XPAR:CAP FIS CDW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 19 Ningshuang Road, Yuhuatai District, Building B, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Nanjing, CHN, 210012
Website
https://www.archermind.com
ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co Ltd is a China-based company engaged in offering software research, development, and consulting service in the fields of mobile devices and internet software. It provides solutions in the fields of Intelligent terminals, Smart automotive, Internet of Things (IoT) and Mobile internet. In Intelligent terminals, the company provides solutions for smartphone, tablet and virtual reality. Smart automotive comprise solutions such as digital cluster, automotive infotainment, intelligent cloud mirror, and smart cockpit. IoT solutions offer solutions for healthcare, home, kitchen and bath, whereas Mobile internet involves finance solutions. The company has a business presence around the world.
Executives
Wang Kun Directors, executives
Wang Jin Feng Directors, executives
Huang Hai Yan Directors, executives
Liu He Yi Director
Liu Yong Independent director

ArcherMind Technology (Nanjing) Co (SZSE:300598) Headlines

No Headlines