GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Ltd (SZSE:300976) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co (SZSE:300976) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Ltd (SZSE:300976) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:002552 SZSE:301307 SZSE:300968 SZSE:300817 SHSE:603890 SZSE:300345 SHSE:605286 SZSE:003043 SZSE:300629 SHSE:601700 CRS ATI MLI ESAB SZSE:000039 TPE:2474 SHSE:688122 XTER:NDA SZSE:300748 SHSE:601399
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Tongsha Science and Technology Park, 3rd Floor, Area B, Building 5, Guanghui Industrial Zone, Dongcheng District, Guangdong Province, Dongguan, CHN, 523127
Website
http://www.dgtarry.com
Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Ltd is engaged in the research and development, production and sales of functional and structural devices for consumer electronics. It specializes in the production of precision die-cutting products, foam protective film tape, insulating and thermally conductive products, EMI shielding products, sewing and high-frequency earmuffs, head cushion products, assembly automation equipment and many other product series. Products are widely used in FPC flexible circuit boards, OLED backlight display modules, plastic shells, solar photovoltaics, power batteries, audio headsets, VR/AR and other electronic and electrical industries.
Executives
Song Ke Qiang Executives
Peng Cheng Xiao Executives
Wu Xuan Executives
Zhang Zhen Hong Directors, executives

Dongguan Tarry Electronics Co Headlines

No Headlines