TEAF (Tortoise Essential Assetsome Term) Predictability Rank

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What is Tortoise Essential Assetsome Term Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tortoise Essential Assetsome Term Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tortoise Essential Assetsome Term Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Tortoise Essential Assets Income Term (NYSE:TEAF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

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Address

5901 College Boulevard, Suite 400, Overland Park, KS, USA, 66211

Website

https://www.tortoiseecofin.com

Tortoise Essential Assets Income Term is a USA-based non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide common shareholders with a high level of total return with an emphasis on current distributions.

Executives

Ciccotello Conrad S	director	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Katherine Moore	officer: President, other: Member of Investment Committee	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Jennifer Paquette	director	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
H Kevin Birzer	director, other: MEMBER, INVESTMENT COMMITTEE	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Alexandra Herger	director	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
P. Bradley Adams	officer: CFO, PFO & TREASURER	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Rand C Berney	director	11550 ASH STREET, SUITE 300, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Sean Paul Wickliffe	officer: Vice President & Asst Treas.	6363 COLLEGE BOULEVARD, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Gregory Daniel Murphy	other: Member of Investment Committee	6363 COLLEGE BOULEVARD, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Prashanth Prakash	other: Member of Investment Committee	15 RIVER ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Lamaze Jean-hugues De	other: Member of Investment Committee	C/O 5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Maneesh Jhunjhunwala	other: Member of Investment Committee	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Gary Paul Henson	other: DIR.; MEMBER OF INV. COMM.^	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Ryan Channell	officer: Vice President	5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Gengler Courtney	officer: Vice President	5200 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211