Terns Pharmaceuticals (Terns Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Terns Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Terns Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Terns Pharmaceuticals (Terns Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:TERN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

430:Germany

Address

1065 East Hillsdale Boulevard, Suite 100, Foster, CA, USA, 94404

Website

https://www.ternspharma.com

Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is developing a portfolio of small-molecule single-agent and combination therapy candidates for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH, and other chronic liver diseases.

Executives

Mark J. Vignola	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O APPLIED THERAPEUTICS, INC., 340 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10173
Seokho Bryan Yoon	officer: COO and General Counsel	NIGHTSTAR THERAPEUTICS PLC, 203 CRESCENT STREET, SUITE 303, WALTHAM MA 02453
Senthil Vel Sundaram	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	NIGHTSTAR THERAPEUTICS PLC, 203 CRESCENT STREET, SUITE 303, WALTHAM MA 02453
Vivo Opportunity Fund Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Hongbo Lu	director	C/O AVEDRO, INC., 201 JONES ROAD, WALTHAM MA 02451
Carl L Gordon	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Lav Biosciences Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O ESTERA TRUST (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 75 FORT STREET, PO BOX 1350, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Lav Aqua Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT 902-904, TWO CHINACHEM CENTRAL, 26 DES VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL K3 000000
Hopewell Resources Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT 902-904, TWO CHINACHEM CENTRAL, 26 DES VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL K3 000000
Oriental Spring Venture Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT 902-904, TWO CHINACHEM CENTRAL, 26 DES VOEUX ROAD CENTRAL K3 000000
Orbimed Capital Gp Vii Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Genesis Gp Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Advisors Iii Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-4629
Orbimed Asia Gp Iii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-4629