TIVC (Tivic Health Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Tivic Health Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tivic Health Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tivic Health Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tivic Health Systems Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Tivic Health Systems Inc (NAS:TIVC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

47685 Lakeview Boulevard, Fremont, CA, USA, 94538

Website

https://www.tivichealth.com

Tivic Health Systems Inc is a health technology company focused on developing and commercializing non-invasive bioelectronic medicine. The company's platform-based technology activates the body's own healing mechanisms and can be programmed to treat various disease conditions. company's products provide a natural alternative to the standard synthetic chemical methods used by the pharmaceutical industry. ClearUP Sinus Relief, is a first commercial product of the company which is a patented handled device that uses ultra-low current electrical waves to relieve sinus pain and congestion symptoms that are prevalent in nasal allergies, sinus infections, chronic sinusitis, cold and flu and other disease conditions.

Executives

Sheryle Bolton	director	55 ALMADEN BLVD, SAN JOSE CA 95113
Dean Zikria	director	C/O INTUITY MEDICAL, INC., 3500 WEST WARREN AVENUE, FREMONT CA 94538
Jennifer Ernst	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	750 MENLO AVENUE, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Blake Gurfein	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	750 MENLO AVENUE, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ryan Sabia	officer: Chief Operating Officer	750 MENLO AVENUE, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kimberly Ann Bambach	officer: Interim CFO	25821 INDUSTRIAL BLVD., SUITE 100, HAYWARD CA 94545
Karen Drexler	director	C/O DIADEXUS, INC., 343 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Veronica Cai	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CATALYST BIOSCIENCES, INC., 611 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 710, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John Claude	10 percent owner	750 MENLO AVENUE, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Briana Benz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	750 MENLO AVENUE, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025