What is Telos Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Telos Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Telos Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
19886 Ashburn Road, Ashburn, VA, USA, 20147-2358
Telos Corp offers technologically forwarded, software-based security solutions that empower and protect the world's security-conscious organizations against rapidly evolving, sophisticated, and pervasive threats. Its business has two reportable and operating segments namely Security Solutions and Secure Networks. The Security Solutions segment focuses on cybersecurity, cloud, and identity solutions, and the Secure Networks focuses on enterprise security. The company derives maximum revenue from the Security Solutions segment.
Executives
| Joshua Landes |
10 percent owner |
|
| Antonio J. Gracias |
10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% Group |
C/O VALOR EQUITY PARTNERS, 200 SOUTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1020, CHICAGO IL 60604 |
| Wynnefield Small Cap Value Offshore Fund Ltd |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVE, STE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Wynnefield Capital Inc |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVE, STE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Wynnefield Capital, Inc. Profit Sharing Plan |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp I |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Wynnefield Capital Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVE, STE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Nelson Obus |
10 percent owner |
|
| Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp |
10 percent owner, other: Member of 10% Group |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| William H Alderman |
director |
C/O AVIATION SALES CO, 6905 N.W. 25TH ST, MIAMI FL 33122 |
| Channel Partnership Ii L P |
10 percent owner |
450 SEVENTH AVENUE SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123 |
| Timothy G Ewing |
10 percent owner, other: (1) |
|
| Ewing & Partners |
10 percent owner, other: (1) |
5646 MILTON STREET, SUITE 880, DALLAS TX 75206 |
| Ewing Asset Management Llc |
10 percent owner, other: (1) |
5646 MILTON STREET, SUITE 880, DALLAS TX 75206 |
| Bernard C Bailey |
director |
|
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