TOI (The Oncology Institute) Predictability Rank

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What is The Oncology Institute Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Oncology Institute Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Oncology Institute Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » The Oncology Institute Inc (NAS:TOI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

18000 Studebaker Road, Suite 800, Cerritos, CA, USA, 90703

Website

https://www.theoncologyinstitute.com

The Oncology Institute Inc offers oncology services committed to improving cancer prevention, diagnosis, treatment, research, and education. The company provides services including infusion centres. In-house dispensary, Outpatient blood transfusion, Outpatient stem cell transplant, financial counseling, clinical trials, comprehensive lab testing, and end-of-life counseling. The business operates in three operating segments dispensary, patients services and clinical trials and others. Key revenue is earned from providing patient services.

Executives

Brad Hively	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Havencrest Healthcare Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	5221 N. O'CONNOR BLVD., SUITE 1200, IRVING TX 75039
Mihir Shah	officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: Principal Financial Officer	C/O 1668 S. GARFIELD AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Jeremy Castle	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1800 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Richard A Barasch	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O UNIVERSAL AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORP, SIX INTERNATIONAL DRIVE SUITE 190, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Matthew P Miller	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Daniel Virnich	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Yale Podnos	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Diona Simoneit	officer: Chief Accounting Officer, other: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Mohit Kaushal	director	44 SOUTH BROADWAY, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601
Gabriel Ling	director	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Mark L Pacala	director	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Richy Agajanian	10 percent owner	C/O THE ONCOLOGY INSTITUTE OF HOPE, 18000 STUDEBAKER ROAD, SUITE 800, CERRITOS CA 90703
Maeve O'meara	director	C/O CASTLIGHT HEALTH, INC., 150 SPEAR ST., SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Toi Hc I, Llc	10 percent owner	2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1760, DALLAS TX 75201