TPI Composites (TPI Composites) Predictability Rank

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What is TPI Composites Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TPI Composites Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TPI Composites (TPI Composites) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » TPI Composites Inc (NAS:TPIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GX6:Germany

Address

8501 North Scottsdale Road, Gainey Center II, Suite 100, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85253

Website

https://www.tpicomposites.com

TPI Composites Inc is engaged in manufacturing composite wind blades. The company operates in wind energy and transportation industries where it manufactures structures for a bus, rail, theme parks, and trucks. Geographically the segments are divided into the U.S, Asia, Mexico, EMEA and India where the Mexico segment derives a majority of revenue.

Executives

Ryan D. Miller	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TPI COMPOSITES, INC., 8501 N. SCOTTSDALE, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Tyrone Michael Jordan	director	8501 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
William E Siwek	officer: CFO	C/O TPI COMPISITES, INC., 8501 N. SCOTTSDALE RD, SUITE 280, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Jerrold I Lavine	officer: President, Transportation	C/O TPI COMPOSITES, INC., 8501 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Oaktree Power Opportunities Fund V (delaware) Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 S. GRAND AVE., 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Phoenix Investment Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 S. GRAND AVE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Steven C Lockard	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O TPI COMPOSITES, INC., 8501 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Andrew Moir	director	C/O TPI COMPOSITES, INC., 8501 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Lance Morell Marram	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O TPI COMPOSITES, INC., 8501 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Peter Joseph Jonna	director	11611 SAN VICENTE BLVD SUITE 700, LOS ANGELES CA 90049
James Alton Hughes	director	350 W WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Daniel G Weiss	director, 10 percent owner	8501 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, GAINEY CENTER II, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253
Oaktree Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Gp I, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071