United Bankshares (United Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is United Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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United Bankshares (United Bankshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » United Bankshares Inc (NAS:UBSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UNK:Germany

Address

500 Virginia Street, 300 United Center, East Charleston, Charleston, WV, USA, 25301

Website

https://www.ubsi-inc.com

United Bankshares Inc is a financial holding company that provides banking services. The company operates in two segments: Community banking, which accepts deposits, makes loans (for personal, credit card, commercial, and construction uses), provides brokerage services, safe deposit boxes, and related services; and Mortgage banking, which offers and acquires home mortgages through an indirectly owned subsidiary. Nearly all revenue comes from the community banking segment.

Executives

Peter A Converse	director	1201 NORTH NASH ST #502, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Gary G White	director	514 MARKET STREET, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Kayes Henry M Jr	officer: EVP	122 NORTH ROSEMONT, MARTINSBURG WV 25401
Rice Lacy I Iii	director	514 MARKET ST, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Diana Lewis Jackson	director	514 MARKET ST, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Michael P Fitzgerald	director	C/O UNITED BANKSHARES, INC., 514 MARKET ST, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
J Paul Mcnamara	director	514 MARKET STREET, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Adams Richard M Sr	director, officer: Chairman of the Board & CEO	514 MARKET STREET, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Matthew L Humphrey	officer: Executive Vice President	514 MARKET ST., PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Chad J Mildren	officer: Executive Vice President	514 MARKET ST., PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Michael Proctor	officer: Executive Vice President	514 MARKET ST., PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Ami L Shaver	officer: Executive Vice President	514 MARKET ST., PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Anna J Schultheis	officer: Executive Vice President	514 MARKET ST, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Julie R Gurtis	officer: Executive Vice President	514 MARKET ST., PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Ross M Draber	officer: Executive Vice President	514 MARKET ST., PARKERSBURG WV 26101