What is Wheels Up Experience Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Wheels Up Experience Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Wheels Up Experience Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2135 American Way, Chamblee, GA, USA, 30341
Wheels Up Experience Inc is a provider of on-demand private aviation in the United States. It is pioneering data and technology-driven solutions that connect consumers to safety-vetted and verified private aircraft. It connects private flyers to aircraft, and one another, through an open platform that enables life's most important experiences. Its offering is delivered through a mix of programmatic and charter options that strategically utilize its owned and leased aircraft fleet and an "asset-light" charter model to deliver a greater range of global travel alternatives. The company operates in a single operating and reportable segment, private aviation services. Geographically the company generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Mark Briffa |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
601 WEST 26TH ST. SUITE 900, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Donald Lee Moak |
director |
601 WEST 26TH STREET, SUITE 900, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Laura Heltebran |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
C/O WHEELS UP EXPERIENCE INC., 601 WEST 26TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Knighthead Opportunities Capital Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
280 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Andrew Stephen Davis |
director |
500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360 |
| Certares Opportunities Llc |
10 percent owner |
350 MADISON AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Adam Ross Zirkin |
director |
280 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Jeffrey Nedelman |
director |
8501 WILLIAMS ROAD, ESTERO FL 33928 |
| Alain Bellemare |
director |
C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., DEPT. 981, P.O. BOX 20574, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
| Cantor Adam Corey |
director |
280 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Ck Wheels Llc |
10 percent owner |
280 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| George N Mattson |
director |
C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320 |
| Ck Opportunities Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
280 PARK AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Zachary George Lazar |
director |
350 MADISON AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Daniel C. Janki |
director |
5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, CARY NC 27513 |
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