What is Vivani Medical Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Vivani Medical Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Vivani Medical Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1350 South Loop Road, Alameda, CA, USA, 94502
Vivani Medical Inc is a preclinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The company develops miniaturized, subdermal implants utilizing its proprietary NanoPortal technology to enable long-term, near-constant-rate delivery of a broad range of medicines to treat chronic diseases. It has two reporting segments, the Biopharm Division and the Neuromodulation Division. The Biopharm Division includes activities from NPM and Vivani Medical Australia Pty Ltd, and the Neurostimulation Division includes activities from Cortigent and its subsidiary in Switzerland.
Executives
| Gregg Williams |
director, 10 percent owner |
PO BOX 200, WALLED LAKE MI 48390-0200 |
| Donald Dwyer |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
54 CHERRY FARM LANE, WEST CHESTER PA 19382 |
| Brigid Makes |
officer: CFO |
20245 SW 95TH AVENUE, TUALATIN OR 97062 |
| Aaron Mendelsohn |
director |
224 15TH STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90402 |
| Joachim Eberhard Bolck |
10 percent owner |
33 CLUB VIEW LANE, ROLLING HILLS ESTATES CA 90274 |
| Lisa Ellen Porter |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
778 CORDILLERAS AVE, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
| Truc Le |
officer: COO |
1905 WEST RED FOX ROAD, SANTA ANA CA 92704 |
| Adam Mendelsohn |
director, officer: CEO |
C/O 5858 HORTON ST. SUITE 280, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Wilford Dean Baker |
director |
200 FLYNN ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012-8790 |
| Larson Alexandra L.p. |
director |
3797 BURNING TREE DRIVE, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302 |
| Scott Dunbar |
officer: Acting CEO |
13170 TELFAIR AVENUE, SYLMAR CA 91342 |
| Edward Jonathon Sedo |
officer: Controller |
4485 FORESTGLEN CT, MOORPARK CA 93021 |
| Jessy Dana Dorn |
officer: VP-Clin & Scientific Affairs |
12744 SAN FERNANDO RD. SUITE 400, SYLMAR CA 91342 |
| Matthew J Pfeffer |
director |
|
| Patrick Ryan |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O SECOND SIGHT MEDICAL PRODUCTS, INC., 12744 SAN FERNANDO ROAD, SUITE 400, SYLMAR CA 91342 |
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