VREOF (Vireo Growth) Predictability Rank

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What is Vireo Growth Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vireo Growth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Vireo Growth Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Vireo Growth Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Vireo Growth Inc (OTCPK:VREOF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0ZF:Germany 0ZF:Germany VREO:Canada

Address

207 South 9th Street, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55402

Website

https://www.vireogrowth.com

Vireo Growth Inc is a cannabis company whose mission is to provide safe access, quality products, and value to its customers while supporting its local communities through active participation and restorative justice programs. The company's operating results in one business segment: the cultivation, production, and sale of cannabis.

Executives

Chicago Atlantic Credit Opportunities, Llc	10 percent owner	420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Manager, Llc	10 percent owner	420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Gp Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Group, Lp	10 percent owner	420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Group Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Advisers, Llc	10 percent owner	420 NORTH WABASH AVENUE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Joshua Rosen	director	207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Victor E. Mancebo	director	C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Christian Gonzales Ocasio	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Amber Holly Shimpa	director, officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Patrick Peters	officer: EVP of Retail	C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
J Michael Schroeder	officer: General Counsel & CCO	3680 VICTORA STREET N, SHOREVIEW MN 55126
John Andrew Heller	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Ross Michael Hussey	director	C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Judd Theodore Nordquist	director	C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402