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VREOF (Vireo Growth) Predictability Rank


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What is Vireo Growth Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Vireo Growth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Vireo Growth Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vireo Growth's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Vireo Growth Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
207 South 9th Street, Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55402
Vireo Growth Inc is a cannabis company whose mission is to provide safe access, quality products, and value to its customers while supporting its local communities through active participation and restorative justice programs. The company's operating results in one business segment: the cultivation, production, and sale of cannabis.
Executives
Chicago Atlantic Credit Opportunities, Llc 10 percent owner 420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Manager, Llc 10 percent owner 420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Gp Holdings, Llc 10 percent owner 420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Group, Lp 10 percent owner 420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Group Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 420 N WABASH AVE STE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Chicago Atlantic Advisers, Llc 10 percent owner 420 NORTH WABASH AVENUE, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60611
Joshua Rosen director 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Victor E. Mancebo director C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Christian Gonzales Ocasio officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Amber Holly Shimpa director, officer: Chief Administrative Officer C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Patrick Peters officer: EVP of Retail C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
J Michael Schroeder officer: General Counsel & CCO 3680 VICTORA STREET N, SHOREVIEW MN 55126
John Andrew Heller officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Ross Michael Hussey director C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Judd Theodore Nordquist director C/O VIREO HEALTH INTERNATIONAL, INC., 207 SOUTH 9TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402