VSCO (Victoria's Secret) Predictability Rank

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What is Victoria's Secret Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Victoria's Secret Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Victoria's Secret Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Victoria's Secret Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Victoria's Secret & Co (NYSE:VSCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VSCO:Mexico 8FR:Germany

Address

4 Limited Parkway East, Reynoldsburg, OH, USA, 43068

Website

https://www.victoriassecretandco.com

Victoria's Secret & Co is a retailer of women's intimate and other apparel and beauty products marketed under the Victoria's Secret, PINK, and Adore Me brand names. It also includes the merchandise sourcing and production function serving the Company and its international partners. The Company operates as a single segment designed to serve customers seamlessly through stores and online channels.

Executives

Bbrc International Pte Ltd	10 percent owner	3 PHILLIP STREET, #11-01, ROYAL GROUP BUILDING, SINGAPORE U0 048693
Donna James	director	ONE MIRANOVA PLACE, SUITE 1040, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Timothy A Johnson	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Rod R Little	director	1 HSN DRIVE, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33729
Chris Rupp	officer: Chief Customer Officer	ALBERTSONS COMPANIES, INC., 250 PARKCENTER BOULEVARD, BOISE ID 83706
Amy Hauk	officer: CEO of Pink	C/O THE CHILDRENS PLACE, 915 SECAUCUS RD, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Mariam Naficy	director	C/O YELP INC., 140 NEW MONTGOMERY ST., 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Anne Sheehan	director	THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Martin P Waters	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1740 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Laura B Miller	officer: Chief Human Resources Ofcr	1501 YAMATO ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Brian Leinbach	officer: Chief Information Officer	4 LIMITED PARKWAY EAST, REYNOLDSBURG OH 43068
Melinda R. Mcafee	officer: Chief Legal Officer	4 LIMITED PARKWAY EAST, REYNOLDSBURG OH 43068
Gregory Unis	officer: CEO of VS Beauty	4 LIMITED PARKWAY, REYNOLDSBURG OH 43068
Lauren B Peters	director	FOOT LOCKER INC, 112 WEST 34TH STREET 4TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10120
Jacqueline Hernandez	director	LIMITED PARKWAY EAST, REYNOLDSBURG OH 43068