Ventyx Biosciences (Ventyx Biosciences) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Ventyx Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ventyx Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ventyx Biosciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ventyx Biosciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ventyx Biosciences (Ventyx Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Ventyx Biosciences Inc (NAS:VTYX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

662 Encinitas Boulevard, Suite 250, Encinitas, CA, USA, 92024

Website

https://www.ventyxbio.com

Ventyx Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on advancing new therapies for millions of patients living with inflammatory diseases and autoimmune disorders. Its lead product candidate VTX958 is an oral, selective clinical-stage tyrosine kinase type 2 (TYK2) inhibitor designed to inhibit TYK2 without detectable inhibition of other Janus kinase (JAK) isoforms, which avoids toxicities associated with broader JAK inhibition and, thus, other JAK inhibitors.

Executives

Raju Mohan	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O VENTYX BIOSCINECES, INC., 332 ENCINITAS BLVD., SUITE 200, ENCINITAS CA 92024
John Nuss	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O VENTYX BIOSCIENCES, INC., 332 ENCINITAS BLVD. SUITE 200, ENCINITAS CA 92024
Christopher W Krueger	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O ARDEA BIOSCIENCES INC, 2131 PALOMAR AIRPORT ROAD SUITE 300, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Nsv Partners Iii Lp	10 percent owner	500 WEST PUTNAM AVE, SUITE 400, GREENWICH CT 06830
Somu Subramaniam	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ICAD INC, 98 SPIT BROOK ROAD SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
Martin Auster	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VENTYX BIOSCIENCES, INC., 662 ENCINITAS BLVD. STE 250, ENCINITAS CA 92024
William J. Sandborn	officer: See Remarks	C/O VENTYX BIOSCIENCES, INC., 662 ENCINITAS BLVD. STE 250, ENCINITAS CA 92024
Sheila Gujrathi	director	10835 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 205, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
William Richard White	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Onaiza Cadoret-manier	director	2855 GAZELLE COURT, C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., CARLSBAD CA 92010
Allison Hulme	director	C/O SOPHIRIS BIO INC., 1258 PROSPECT ST, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Venbio Global Strategic Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Aaron Royston	director, 10 percent owner	200 CARDINAL WAY, 2ND FLOOR, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Cormorant Private Healthcare Fund Iii Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116