WBS (Webster Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Webster Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Webster Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Webster Financial Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Webster Financial Corp (NYSE:WBS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WBSpG.PFD:USA WBSpF.PFD:USA WED:Germany

Address

200 Elm Street, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.websterbank.com

Webster Financial Corp is a full-service provider of financial services, offering commercial and consumer banking, mortgages, and investment advisory along with trust and wealth management services in Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania. The company's segment includes Commercial Banking, HSA Bank, and Consumer Banking. It generates maximum revenue from the Commercial Banking segment.

Executives

John R Ciulla	officer: EVP-Commercial Banking	C/O WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP, 145 BANK STREET, WATERBURY CT 06702
Laurence C Morse	director
Daniel Bley	officer: EVP-Chief Risk Officer	C/O WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP, 145 BANK STREET, WATERBURY CT 06702
Charles L Wilkins	officer: EVP-Head of HSA Bank	C/O WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP, 145 BANK STREET, WATERBURY CT 06702
Lauren States	director	16 WILMONT AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10605
Javier L. Evans	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	400 RELLA BOULEVARD, MONTEBELLO NY 10901
Christopher J Motl	officer: EVP-Commercial Banking	C/O WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP, 145 BANK STREET, WATERBURY CT 06702
Mark Pettie	director	90 NORTH BROADWAY, IRVINGTON NY 10533
Albert Jen-wen Wang	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	18500 VON KARMEN AVENUE, SUITE 900, IRVINE CA 92612
William E. Whiston	director	C/O 21 SCARSDALE ROAD, YONKERS NY 10707
Luis Massiani	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PROVIDENT BANK, 400 RELLA BOULEVARD, MONTEBELLO NY 10901
Jack L Kopnisky	director, officer: Exec. Chair. Company & Bank	C/O STERLING NATIONAL BANK, 400 RELLA BOULEVARD, MONTEBELLO NY 10901
Kristy Berner	officer: EVP, GC & Corp Sec	C/O PEOPLE'S UNITED BANK, N.A., 850 MAIN STREET, BRIDGEPORT CT 06604
Katherine Vines Trumbull	officer: Acting General Counsel	200 ELM STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Maureen Mitchell	director	400 RELLA BOULEVARD, MONTEBELLO NY 10901