GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Dairibord Holdings Ltd (XZIM:DZL.ZW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Dairibord Holdings (XZIM:DZL.ZW) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Dairibord Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dairibord Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Dairibord Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Dairibord Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Dairibord Holdings (XZIM:DZL.ZW) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Dairibord Holdings Ltd (XZIM:DZL.ZW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XZIM:AFDS.ZW XZIM:MEIK.ZW XZIM:GBH.ZW XZIM:FMHL.ZW XZIM:UNIF.ZW XZIM:OKZ.ZW XZIM:SACL.ZW XZIM:WILD.ZW XZIM:MSHL.ZW XSWX:NESN KHC GIS XPAR:BN SHSE:603288 NSE:NESTLEIND SZSE:300999 SHSE:600887 TSE:2802 LSE:ABF BIMBOA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1225 Rekayi Tangwena Avenue, Belvedere, P.O. Box 587, Harare, ZWE
Website
https://www.dairibord.com
Dairibord Holdings Ltd manufactures, processes, markets, and distributes milk products, foods, and beverages in Zimbabwe. It operates through Manufacturing and Distribution (Zimbabwe), Corporate, and Properties segments. The company generates maximum revenue from the Manufacturing and Distribution segment. It offers various products, including liquid milk products, such as short and long shelf life, cultured, and cream milk products; food products comprising yoghurts, ice creams, cheese, ice cream cone shells, condiments, spreads, sauces, butter, and ghee; and beverages, which include cordials, ready to drink dairy and non-dairy beverages, teas, mineral water, juices, and drinking chocolate.

Dairibord Holdings (XZIM:DZL.ZW) Headlines

No Headlines