Zura Bio (Zura Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Zura Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zura Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Zura Bio (Zura Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Zura Bio Ltd (NAS:ZURA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

94E:Germany

Address

4225 Executive Square, Suite 600, La Jolla, CA, USA, 92037

Website

https://www.zurabio.com

Zura Bio Ltd is a multi-asset clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing novel medicines for immune and inflammatory disorders.

Executives

Parvinder Thiara	director, 10 percent owner	C/O TOURMALINE BIO, INC., 27 WEST 24TH STREET, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10010
Amit Munshi	director	C/O EPIRUS BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 699 BOYLSTON STREET, 8TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Graham Neil Murray Hamilton	director	33 MT. GREEN RD, CROTON ON HUDSON, NEW YORK NY 10520
Sandeep Chidambar Kulkarni	director	92 MORNINGSIDE AVE., APT 7E, NEW YORK NM 10027
Kimberly Ann Davis	officer: Secretary and General Counsel	C/O ZURA BIO INC., 4225 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 600, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Gary Whale	officer: EVP and CTO	2 THE BEACHES, SHIPLAKE, HENLEY-ON-THAMES, OXFORDSHIRE X0 RG9 3BT
Theresa Lowry	officer: EVP and CHRO	3629 VILLA TERRACE, SAN DIEGO CA 92104
Michael Howell	officer: SVP, Translational Medicine	4225 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 600, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Hana Immunotherapeutics Llc	10 percent owner	6 CENTERPOINTE DR., #625, LA PALMA CA 90623
Chris Kim	10 percent owner	6 CENTERPOINTE DR., #625, LA PALMA CA 90623
Ewon Comfortech Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	8, CHEOMDAN 1-RO, JEONGUP-SI, JEONLABUK-DO M5 320836
Steven J Schoch	director	2748 BUSH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94115
Preston Klassen	officer: President and COO	3344 N. TORREY PINES COURT, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Christopher Cabell	officer: EVP and CMO	C/O ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 6154 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jennifer Jarrett	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105