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ZURA (Zura Bio) Predictability Rank


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What is Zura Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Zura Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Zura Bio Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zura Bio Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1489 W. Warm Springs Road, Suite 110, Henderson, NV, USA, 89014
Zura Bio Ltd is a clinical-stage, multi-asset immunology company developing novel dual-pathway antibodies for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. It is developing three assets which have completed Phase I/Ib studies and are Phase II ready. It is developing a portfolio of therapeutic indications for tibulizumab and torudokimab with a goal of demonstrating their efficacy, safety, and dosing convenience in autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.
Executives
Parvinder Thiara director, 10 percent owner C/O TOURMALINE BIO, INC., 27 WEST 24TH STREET, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10010
Someit Sidhu director C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-11
Ploos Van Amstel Arnout director C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-11
Amit Munshi director C/O EPIRUS BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 699 BOYLSTON STREET, 8TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael Howell officer: SVP, Translational Medicine 4225 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 600, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Garry Arthur Neil director 555 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 365, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Ewon Comfortech Co., Ltd. 10 percent owner 8, CHEOMDAN 1-RO, JEONGUP-SI, JEONLABUK-DO M5 320836
Chris Kim 10 percent owner 6 CENTERPOINTE DR., #625, LA PALMA CA 90623
Hana Immunotherapeutics Llc 10 percent owner 6 CENTERPOINTE DR., #625, LA PALMA CA 90623
Theresa Lowry officer: EVP and CHRO 3629 VILLA TERRACE, SAN DIEGO CA 92104
Gary Whale officer: EVP and CTO 2 THE BEACHES, SHIPLAKE, HENLEY-ON-THAMES, OXFORDSHIRE X0 RG9 3BT
Kimberly Ann Davis officer: Secretary and General Counsel C/O ZURA BIO INC., 4225 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 600, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Graham Neil Murray Hamilton director 33 MT. GREEN RD, CROTON ON HUDSON, NEW YORK NY 10520
Sandeep Chidambar Kulkarni director 92 MORNINGSIDE AVE., APT 7E, NEW YORK NM 10027
Pfizer Inc 10 percent owner 66 HUDSON BOULEVARD EAST, NEW YORK NY 10001-2192