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Delaware Investments Natl Muniome Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Delaware Investments Natl Muniome Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Delaware Investments Natl Muniome Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Delaware Investments Natl Muniome's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Delaware Investments Natl Muniome Business Description

Delaware Investments Natl Muniome logo
Financial Services » Asset Management NAICS : 523920 SIC : 6799
Traded in Other Exchanges
610 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19106
Delaware Investments Natl Muni Income is a closed-end investment fund. The Fund seeks to provide current income exempt from regular federal income tax consistent with the preservation of capital.
Wells Fargo Bank N A 10 percent owner 101 NORTH PHILLIPS AVENUE SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Toronto Dominion Holdings Usa Inc 10 percent owner 40 WALL STREET NEW YORK NY 10003
Toronto Dominion Bank 10 percent owner 66 WELLINGTON STREET WEST 15TH FLOOR, TD TOWER TORONTO, ONTARIO A6 M5K 1A2
Toronto Dominion Investments, Inc. 10 percent owner 909 FANIN SUITE 1950 HOUSTON TX 77010
Td Group Us Holdings Llc 10 percent owner 251 LITTLE FALLS DRIVE WILMINGTON DE 19808
Van Roden Jake officer: SVP/Portfolio Manager 2005 MARKET STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Wood Christianna director 330 OLD Y ROAD GOLDEN CO 80401
Abernathy Jerome director 2005 MARKET STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Lytle Shawn director, officer: Trustee C/O DELAWARE INVESTMENTS 2005 MARKET STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Borowiec Ann Dully director, officer: Board Member C/O DELAWARE INVESTMENTS 2005 MARKET STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Chow Joseph W director STATE STREET CORP 225 FRANKLIN ST BOSTON MA 02110
Whitford Thomas K director 249 FIFTH AVE P1-POPP-30-1 PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Gizzi Gregory A. officer: VP/Portfolio Manager C/O DELAWARE INVESTMENTS 2005 MARKET STREET PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Sevilla-sacasa Frances Aldrich director 3 GREENWAY PLAZA SUITE 1300 HOUSTON TX 77046
Zecher Richard director 2 SUTTON PLACE SOUTH, 19A NEW YORK NY 10022

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