Aon (AON) Predictability Rank

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What is Aon Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aon (AON) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Aon PLC (NYSE:AON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4VK:Germany 4VK:Germany A1ON34:Brazil

Address

James Joyce Street, Metropolitan Building, Dublin 1, IRL, D01 K0Y8

Website

https://www.aon.com

Aon is a leading global provider of insurance and reinsurance brokerage and human resource solutions. Its operations are tilted toward its brokerage operations. Headquartered in London, Aon has about 50,000 employees and operations in over 120 countries around the world.

Executives

Byron Spruell	director	200 EAST RANDOLPH ST., CHICAGO IL 60601
Eric Andersen	officer: CEO, Aon Benfield	200 EAST RANDOLPH ST., CHICAGO IL 60601
Sarah G Smith	director	C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC, 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Christa Davies	officer: EVP, Global Finance	AON CORPORATE LAW DEPT, 200 EAST RANDOLPH ST, 8TH FL, CHICAGO IL 60601
Michael Neller	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	200 EAST RANDOLPH ST., CHICAGO IL 60601
Mindy F. Simon	officer: Chief Operating Officer	FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Adriana Karaboutis	director	C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 225 BINNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Darren Zeidel	officer: General Counsel	200 EAST RANDOLPH ST., CHICAGO IL 60640
Lester B Knight	director	C/O AON CORP, 200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jillian Slyfield	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	200 E RANDOLPH ST., CHICAGO IL 60601
J Michael Losh	director	H.B. FULLER COMPANY, P.O. BOX 64683, ST. PAUL MN 55164-0683
James Platt	officer: Chief Operating Officer	THE LEADENHALL BUILDING, 122 LEADENHALL ST., LONDON X0 EC3V 4AN
John G Bruno	officer: Executive Vice President, CIO
Carolyn Y Woo	director	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 4641-
Anthony R Goland	officer: EVP and CHRO	C/O AON LAW DEPARTMENT, 200 EAST RANDOLPH ST, CHICAGO IL 60601