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Academy Sports and Outdoors (NAS:ASO) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Academy Sports and Outdoors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Academy Sports and Outdoors Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Academy Sports and Outdoors's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Academy Sports and Outdoors (NAS:ASO) Business Description

Academy Sports and Outdoors logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1800 North Mason Road, Katy, TX, USA, 77449
Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc is engaged in the retail business of sporting goods and outdoor recreation products. The company offers outdoor clothing, backpacks, sunglasses, luggage items, shooting equipment, fishing equipment, boating and water sports equipment, backyard recreation products, outdoor cooking equipment, fitness equipment, electronic items, dog supplies, and other products.
Executives
Turner Christopher Lee director 1441 GARDINER LANE LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Turney Sharen J director THREE LIMITED PARKWAY COLUMBUS OH 43230
Raff Beryl director 5555 DARROW RD HUDSON OH 44236
Nealon Thomas M director 6501 LEGACY DRIVE PLANO TX 75024
Harriman Sherry L. officer: SVP, Logistics & Supply Chain C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. 1800 N MASON ROAD KATY TX 77449
Beck Wendy A. director C/O NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD. 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE MIAMI FL 33126
Allstar Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P. 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr 2006 Allstar Blocker L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P. 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr 2006 Fund (allstar) L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P. 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Davis Heather A. officer: VP, Controller C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD KATY TX 77449
Allstar Co-invest Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P. 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Tweedy Jeffrey C. director C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD KATY TX 77449
Allstar Co-invest Blocker L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P. 30 HUDSON YARDS NEW YORK NY 10001
Ennis William S. officer: See Remarks C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD KATY TX 77449
Patel Vishal director C/O US FOODS HOLDING CORP. 9399 W. HIGGINS RD. ROSEMONT IL 60018

Academy Sports and Outdoors (NAS:ASO) Headlines

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