Booking Holdings (Booking Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Booking Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Booking Holdings (Booking Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Booking Holdings Inc (NAS:BKNG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BKNG:Mexico 1BKNG:Italy 0W2Y:UK PCE1:Germany PCE1:Germany BKNG34:Brazil

Address

800 Connecticut Avenue, Norwalk, CT, USA, 06854

Website

https://www.bookingholdings.com

Booking is the world's largest online travel agency by sales, offering booking and payment services for hotel and alternative accommodation rooms, airline tickets, rental cars, restaurant reservations, cruises, experiences, and other vacation packages. The company operates a number of branded travel booking sites, including Booking.com, Agoda, OpenTable, and Rentalcars.com, and has expanded into travel media with the acquisitions of Kayak and Momondo. Transaction fees for online bookings account for the bulk of revenue and profits.

Executives

Glenn D Fogel	officer: Hd Worldwide Strat & Planning	PRICELINE.COM INCORPORATED, 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
David I Goulden	officer: Chief Financial Officer	176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Radakovich Lynn Vojvodich	director	C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Nicholas Read	director	C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Susana D'emic	officer: SVP, CAO & Controller	C/O TIME INC., 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Paulo Pisano	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Larry Quinlan	director	2225 LAWSON LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Mylod Robert J Jr	officer: Vice Chairman
Sumit Singh	director	C/O CHEWY, INC., 7700 WEST SUNRISE BLVD, PLANTATION FL 33322
Peter J Millones	officer: Executive VP, General Counsel
Jeffery H Boyd	director	C/O ASPEN GROVE CAPITAL, LLC, PO BOX 9389, AVON CO 81620
Dijk Bob Van	director	C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Gillian Tans	officer: President & COO, Booking.com	C/O THE PRICELINE GROUP INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Vanessa Ames Wittman	director	C/O MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Wei Hopeman	director	C/O BOOKING HOLDINGS INC., 800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854