Civitas Solutions (Civitas Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Civitas Solutions Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Civitas Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Civitas Solutions (Civitas Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Civitas Solutions Inc (NYSE:CIVI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

313 Congress Street, 6th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

http://www.civitas-solutions.com

Civitas Solutions Inc provides health services to people with intellectual, developmental, physical, or behavioral disabilities and other special needs. Its revenue is generated exclusively in the United States. Civitas operates in two segments: human services and post-acute specialty rehabilitation services, or SRS. The human services segment contributes the vast majority of revenue and provides services to people with disabilities, at-risk youth, and the elderly. Its programs for people with intellectual or developmental disabilities provide residential support, case management, and vocational services. The SRS segment provides rehabilitation and transitional living services to people who have experienced brain or spinal injuries or other severe illnesses or injuries.

Executives

Daniel S Oconnell	10 percent owner	C/O VESTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS, 245 PARK AVE 41ST FL, NEW YORK NY 10167
Vestar Managers V Ltd.	10 percent owner	245 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Vestar Associates V, L.p.	10 percent owner	245 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Greg Roth	director	ONE PARK PLAZA, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Pamela F Lenehan	director	C/O AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC., ONE PARK WEST, TEWKSBURY MA 01876
Patrick M. Gray	director	C/O CIVITAS SOLUTIONS, INC. 313 CONGRESS STREET, 6TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02210
Guy P Sansone	director	C/O MEDNAX, 1301 CONCORD TERRACE, SUNRISE FL 33323
Mary Ann Tocio	director	C/O BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS, 2 WELLS AVENUE, NEWTON MA 02459
Vestar Capital Partners V L P	10 percent owner	245 PARK AVE 41ST FL, NEW YORK NY 10167
Robert L. Rosner	director	C/O TRITON INTERNATIONAL LIMITED, 100 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Edward M Murphy	director, officer: Executive Chair	C/O CIVITAS SOLUTIONS, INC. 313 CONGRESS STREET, 6TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02210
Kevin A Mundt	director	C/O VESTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS, 245 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FL, NEW YORK NY 10167