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CenterPoint Energy (NYSE:CNP) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CenterPoint Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

CenterPoint Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CenterPoint Energy (NYSE:CNP) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
1111 Louisiana, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
CenterPoint Energy owns a portfolio of businesses. Its regulated electric utilities provide transmission and distribution services to more than 2.5 million customers in the Houston area, southern Indiana, and west central Ohio. The company has natural gas distribution systems in six states serving approximately 4 million customers.
Christopher A Foster officer: EVP and CFO 77 BEALE ST., P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
David J Lesar director, officer: President & CEO
Jason P. Wells officer: EVP & CFO 77 BEALE ST., P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Kristie Colvin officer: SVP and CAO 1111 LOUISIANA, HOUSTON TX 77002
Ricky Anthony Raven director 1111 LOUISIANA STREEET, STE. 4600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Thaddeus J. Malik director 1111 LOUISIANA STREET, STE. 4600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Russell Keith Wright officer: VP, FP&A and Interim CAO 1111 LOUISIANA STREET, STE 4600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Barry T Smitherman director NRG ENERGY, INC., 804 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Ted Pound director C/O ALLIS-CHALMERS, 5075 WESTHIEMER, #890, HOUSTON TX 77056
Kara Gostenhofer Ryan officer: Vice President and CAO 1111 LOUISIANA STREET, # 4600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Martin H. Nesbitt director 10319 WESTLAKE DRIVE, SUITE 112, BETHESDA MD 20817
Wendolynn Montoya Cloonan director 1111 LOUISIANA STREET #4600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Wooten Lewis Raquelle director 1111 LOUISIANA STREET, #4600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Phillip R Smith director 1111 LOUISIANA, HOUSTON TX 77002
Earl M Cummings director 1111 LOUISIANA STREET #4600, HOUSTON TX 77002