CrowdStrike Holdings (CrowdStrike Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is CrowdStrike Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CrowdStrike Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CrowdStrike Holdings (CrowdStrike Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (NAS:CRWD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CRWD:Mexico 45C:Germany 45C:Germany

Address

206 E. 9th Street, Suite 1400, Austin, TX, USA, 78701

Website

https://www.crowdstrike.com

CrowdStrike is a cloud-based cybersecurity company specializing in next-generation endpoint and cloud workload protection. CrowdStrike's primary offering is its Falcon platform that offers a proverbial single pane of glass for an enterprise to detect and respond to security threats attacking its IT infrastructure. The Texas-based firm was founded in 2011 and went public in 2019.

Executives

Michael Sentonas	officer: PRESIDENT	C/O CROWDSTRIKE, INC., 206 E. 9TH STREET, SUITE 1400, AUSTIN TX 78701
George Kurtz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC., 150 MATHILDA PLACE, SUITE 300, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Sameer K Gandhi	director, 10 percent owner
Anurag Saha	officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	206 E. 9TH STREET, SUITE 1400, AUSTIN TX 78701
Shawn Henry	officer: Please see remarks	CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC., 150 MATHILDA PLACE, SUITE 300, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Burt W. Podbere	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC., 150 MATHILDA PLACE, SUITE 300, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Denis Oleary	director	40 MORRIS LANE, SCARSDALE NY 10583
Godfrey Sullivan	director	SPLUNK INC., 250 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Roxanne S Austin	director	200 N SEPULVEDA BLVD, PO BOX 956 MS ES/001/A102, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Johanna Flower	director	C/O FRESHWORKS INC., 2950 S DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 201, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Gerhard Watzinger	director	2821 TARFLOWER WAY, NAPLES FL 34105
Michael J. Carpenter	officer: PRES., GLBAL SALES & FLD OPS	CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC., 150 MATHILDA PLACE, SUITE 300, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Black Colin	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC., 150 MATHILDA PLACE, SUITE 300, SUNNYVAL CA 94086
Abhishek Maheshwari	officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS, INC., 150 MATHILDA PLACE, SUITE 300, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Cary Davis	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017