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ENCP (Energem) Predictability Rank


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What is Energem Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Energem Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Energem Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Energem's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Energem Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Energem Corp (NAS:ENCP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
VSAC QOMO CLRC DMAQ PLTN KACL DHAC PCCT MTRY PEPL PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, Level 3, Tower 11 (Sanichi), Avenue 5, No. 8, Wilayah Persekutuan, Kuala Lumpur, MYS, 59200
Website
Energem Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Wolverine Asset Management Llc 10 percent owner 175 WEST JACKSON, SUITE 340, CHICAGO IL 60604
Swee Guan Hoo director, officer: Chief Executive Officer NO. 21 JALAN ELEKTRON U16/62, SEKSYEN U16 DENAI ALAM, SHAH ALAM, SELANGOR N8 40160
Li Sin Tan director NO. 16JALAN INDAH 14/12TAMAN BUKIT INDAH, NUSAJAYA, JOHOR N8 79100
Cu Seng Kiu officer: Chief Financial Officer LOT 3313 TAMAN SINARAN, JALAN ISMAIL PET RA, TANAH MERAH, KELANTAN N8 17500
Energem Llc 10 percent owner LEVEL 10, TOWER 11, AVENUE 5, NO. 8, JALAN KERINCHI, BANGSAR SOUTH, WILAYAHPERSEKUTUANKUALA LUMPUR N8 59200
Doris Wong Sing Ee director LEVEL 10, TOWER 11, AVENUE 5, NO. 8, JALAN KERINCHI, BANGSAR SOUTH, WILAYAHPERSEKUTUANKUALA LUMPUR N8 59200
Kok Seong Wong director 10 LORONG UNIVERSITI B, SECTION 16, PETALING JAYA, SELANGOR N8 46200
Kwang Fock Chong director 42, JALAN BPM9,TAMAN BUKIT PIATU MUTIARA, BUKIT BARU, MELEKA N8 75150