Evans Bancorp (Evans Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Evans Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Evans Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Evans Bancorp (Evans Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Evans Bancorp Inc (AMEX:EVBN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6460 Main Street, Williamsville, NY, USA, 14221

Website

https://www.evansbancorp.com

Evans Bancorp Inc is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, it provides various banking services to consumers and commercial customers in the USA. The firm operates in two segments, Banking Activities and Insurance Agency Activities. The banking business segment includes both commercial and consumer banking services, including lending and depository services and offering non-deposit investment products, such as annuities and mutual funds. The insurance agency segment includes the activities of selling various premium-based insurance policies on a commission basis, including business and personal insurance, employee benefits, surety bonds, risk management, life, disability and long-term care coverage, and providing claims adjusting services to various insurance companies.

Executives

Miller Robert G Jr	director, officer: Pres. M&W Agency/ENB Assoc.	1845 LAKE ROAD, SILVER CREEK NY 14136
David J Nasca	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Lee C Wortham	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Jody L Lomeo	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Robert A James	director	6460 MAIN STREET, WILLIAMSVILLE NY 14221
Dawn Deperrior	director	45 SOUTH MAIN STREET, FAIRPORT NY 14450
Kevin D Maroney	director	45 SOUTH MAIN STREET, FAIRPORT NY 14450
John B Connerton	officer: Vice President/Controller	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Waring Thomas H Jr	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Aaron Whitehouse	officer: President, The Evans Agency	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Oliver Sommer	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
St. George Mark G.	officer: President, The Evans Agency	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Kimberley A Minkel	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Christina P Orsi	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075
Michael A Battle	director	ONE GRIMSBY DRIVE, HAMBURG NY 14075