Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc (NAS:FMAO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

307 North Defiance Street, Archbold, OH, USA, 43502

Website

https://www.fm.bank

Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc is a holding company for Farmers & Merchants Bank of Central California. It engages in general commercial banking business. Its activities include commercial, agricultural and residential mortgages as well as consumer and credit card lending activities. The interest received on lending to the commercial and retail market forms the basis of the bank's primary revenue.

Executives

Eugene N Burkholder	director	12730 US HIGHWAY 20A, WAUSEON OH 43567
Steven J Planson	director	22199 COUNTY ROAD F, STRYKER OH 43557
David P Vernon	director	307 N DEFIANCE ST, ARCHBOLD OH 43502
Jo Ellen Hornish	director	24880 BANNER SCHOOL RD, DEFIANCE OH 43512
Andrew J Briggs	director	307 N DEFIANCE STREET, ARCHBOLD OH 43502
Simon R. Frank	director	307 N. DEFIANCE STREET, ARCHBOLD OH 43502
Lori Ann Johnston	director	307 N DEFIANCE STREET, ARCHBOLD OH 43502
Lars B Eller	officer: President & CEO	214 CALEB STREET, WEST CHESTER PA 19382
Paul S Siebenmorgen	officer: Sr. Executive VP
Anthony Rupp	director	203 N. DEFIANCE ST., ARCHBOLD OH 43502
Jackson Jack Cornelius	director	105 S MAIN STREET, BRYAN OH 43506
Marcia Sloan Latta	director	1528 MUIRFIELD DR, BOWLING GREEN OH 43402
Katrina L Degroff	officer: Sr. Vice President	6085 COUNTY RD 13, WAUSEON OH 43567
Phillip P Lucas	officer: Sr. Vice President	5047 STONESPRING CRT, ANDERSON IN 46012
Benet S Rupp	officer: Sr. Vice President	3963 TIMBER VALLEY DR, MAUMEE OH 4337