First Solar (First Solar) Predictability Rank

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What is First Solar Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Solar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Solar (First Solar) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » First Solar Inc (NAS:FSLR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FSLR:Mexico 1FSLR:Italy F3A:Germany F3A:Germany F3A:Germany FSLR34:Brazil FSLR:Argentina

Address

350 West Washington Street, Suite 600, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281

Website

https://www.firstsolar.com

First Solar designs and manufactures solar photovoltaic panels, modules, and systems for use in utility-scale development projects. The company's solar modules use cadmium telluride to convert sunlight into electricity. This is commonly called thin-film technology. First Solar is the world's largest thin-film solar module manufacturer. It has production lines in Vietnam, Malaysia, the United States, and India.

Executives

Georges Antoun	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O FIRST SOLAR, INC., 350 WEST WASHINGTON ST., SUITE 600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Kuntal Kumar Verma	officer: Chief Mfg. Engineering Officer	28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Alexander R. Bradley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	77 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Markus Gloeckler	officer: Co-Chief Technology Officer	28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551
R Craig Kennedy	director	1844 "R" STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20009
Mark R Widmar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD, 12900 SNOW ROAD, PARMA OH 44130
Michael T Sweeney	director	GOLDNER HAWN, 3700 WELLS FARGO CENTER, 90 SOUTH 7TH ST, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
William J Post	director	400 NORTH FIFTH STREET, ., PHOENIX AZ 85004
Paul H Stebbins	director	C/O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP, 9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, SUITE 400, MIAMI FL 33178
Byron Michael Jeffers	officer: CAO, Interim	350 WEST WASHINGTON ST., TEMPE AZ 85281
Richard D Chapman	director	350 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jason E. Dymbort	officer: General Counsel, Interim	77 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Norman L. Wright	director	26335 N. 104TH WAY, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Patrick James Buehler	officer: Chief Quality and Rel. Officer	28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Michael Koralewski	officer: Chief Mfg. Operations Officer	28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551