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General Electric Co (NYSE:GE) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


General Electric Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

General Electric Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of General Electric Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


General Electric Co (NYSE:GE) Business Description

Address
5 Necco Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02210
GE was formed through the combination of two companies in 1892, including one with historical ties to American inventor Thomas Edison. Today, GE is a global leader in air travel and in the energy transition. The company is known for its differentiated technology and its massive industrial installed base of equipment sprawled throughout the world. That installed base most notably includes aerospace engines, gas and steam turbines, and onshore and offshore wind turbines. GE earns most of its profits on the service revenue of that equipment, which is generally higher-margin. The company is led by Danaher alumnus Larry Culp, who is leading a multiyear turnaround of the conglomerate based on lean principles.
Executives
Michael J Holston officer: Senior Vice President GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, ONE FINANCIAL CENTER, SUITE 3700, BOSTON MA 02111
Rahul Ghai officer: Senior Vice President GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, 5 NECCO STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Scott Strazik officer: Senior Vice President ONE FINANCIAL CENTER, SUITE 3700, BOSTON MA 02111
Jessica R. Uhl director 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Thomas S Timko officer: Vice President 300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C25-A36, DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Darren W Mcdew director 100 ABBOTT PARK ROAD, ABBOTT PARK IL 60064
L Kevin Cox officer: Senior Vice President THE PEPSI BOTTLING GROUP, INC., ONE PEPSI WAY, SOMERS NY 10589
Russell Stokes officer: Senior Vice President ONE FINANCIAL CENTER, SUITE 3700, BOSTON MA 02111
Happe Carolina Dybeck officer: Senior Vice President 5 NECCO STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
John S. Slattery officer: Executive Vice President 5 NECCO STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Thomas W Horton director 4333 AMON CARTER BLVD., FORTH WORTH TX 76155
Isabella D Goren director C/O LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N V, DELFTSEPLEIN 27E, ROTTERDAM P7 3013AA
Francisco Dsouza director 500 GLENPOINTE CENTRE W, TEANECK NJ 07666
Risa J Lavizzo-mourey director GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES INC., 500 W. MONROE ST., CHICAGO IL 60661
Paula Rosput Reynolds director 605 HILLSIDE DRIVE EAST, SEATTLE WA 98112