Graco (GGG) Predictability Rank

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What is Graco Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Graco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Graco (GGG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Graco Inc (NYSE:GGG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GA8:Germany GA8:Germany

Address

88-11th Avenue Northeast, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55413

Website

https://www.graco.com

Graco manufactures equipment used for managing fluids, coatings, and adhesives, specializing in difficult-to-handle materials. Graco's business is organized into three segments: industrial, process, and contractor. The Minnesota-based firm serves a wide range of end markets, including industrial, automotive, and construction, and its broad array of products include pumps, valves, meters, sprayers, and equipment used to apply coatings, sealants, and adhesives. The firm generated roughly $2.1 billion in sales and $573 million in operating income in 2022.

Executives

Mark W Sheahan	officer: VICE PRESIDENT AND TREASURER	P.O. BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Angela F Wordell	officer: Executive VP, Operations	88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Kathryn L Schoenrock	officer: Executive Vice President	88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Caroline M Chambers	officer: Vice President and Controller	PO BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Eric Etchart	director	ROOM F, 22F CROSS REGION PLAZA, 899 LINGLING ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200030
Van Sant R William	director	PO BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Timothy R White	officer: President, EMEA	88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Ronita Banerjee	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55105
Jeffrey P. Johnson	officer: Vice President	88 - 11TH AVENUE N.E., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Heather L Anfang	director	88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Dale D Johnson	officer: VICE PRESIDENT	P.O. BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 5440-1441
Christopher D. Knutson	officer: EVP, Corporate Controller	88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Claudio Merengo	officer: President, Worldwide Gema	88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
J Kevin Gilligan	director	P O BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Archie C. Black	director	333 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402