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Incyte (NAS:INCY) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Incyte Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Incyte Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Incyte's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Incyte (NAS:INCY) Business Description

Incyte logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1801 Augustine Cut-Off, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19803
Incyte focuses on the discovery and development of small-molecule drugs. The firm's lead drug, Jakafi, treats two types of rare blood cancer and graft versus host disease and is partnered with Novartis. Incyte's other marketed drugs include rheumatoid arthritis treatment Olumiant (licensed to Lilly), and oncology drugs Iclusig (chronic myeloid leukemia), Pemazyre (cholangiocarcinoma), Tabrecta (lung cancer), and Monjuvi (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma). The firm's first dermatology product, Opzelura, was approved in 2021 for atopic dermatitis. Incyte's pipeline includes a broad array of oncology and dermatology programs.
Executives
Susanne Schaffert director C/O RUBIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 399 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Thomas Tray officer: Principal Accounting Officer C/O INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Otis W Brawley director 5203 BRISTOL INDUSTRIAL WAY, BUFORD GA 30518
Katherine A High director 3737 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1300, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Edmund Harrigan director
Michael James Morrissey officer: EVP, Head of Tech. Operations IN CARE OF INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Jonathan Elliott Dickinson officer: EVP, General Manager, Europe CARE OF INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Christiana Stamoulis officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Dashyant Dhanak officer: EVP & Chief Scientific Officer C/O INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Maria E Pasquale officer: EVP & General Counsel C/O INCYTE CORPORATION, 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Jacqualyn A Fouse director C/O DICK'S SPORTING GOODS, 345 COURT STREET, CORAOPOLIS PA 15108
Vijay K Iyengar officer: EVP GPS, BD, & Licensing 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Steven H Stein officer: EVP & Chief Medical Officer 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Paul Trower officer: VP, Finance & Prin Acc Officer 1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Paul J Clancy director C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142

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