What is iRobot Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
iRobot Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
iRobot (iRobot) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8 Crosby Drive, Bedford, MA, USA, 01730
iRobot Corp is a united state based consumer robot company. It designs and builds robots that assist consumers with the solutions for the activities to be carried both inside and outside of the home. The company's consumer robot comprises a portfolio of solutions which includes cleaning, mapping and navigation, human-robot interaction, and physical solutions. The company operates in the business segment of Consumer robots. The consumer robot products are provided to the consumers by retail businesses and online store. The company derives its revenue from the product sales. It sells the products across the United States and around the world.
Executives
| Faris Habbaba |
officer: Chief R&D Officer |
IROBOT CORPORATION, 8 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Julie Zeiler |
officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer |
C/O IROBOT CORPORATION, 8 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Deborah G Ellinger |
director |
ONE CVS DR, WOONSOCKET RI 02895 |
| Mohamad Ali |
director |
2 AVENUE DE LAFAYETTE, BOSTON MA 02111 |
| Angle Colin M |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
352 BEACON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Karen Golz |
director |
ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, NORWOOD MA 02062 |
| David Keith Hartsfield |
officer: Chief Product Officer |
C/O IROBOT CORPORATION, 8 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Ruey Bin Kao |
director |
CHINA HOLDINGS ACQUISITION CORP., 33 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, WESTPORT CT 06880 |
| Andrew Miller |
director |
111 MCINNIS PARKWAY, SAN RAFAEL CA 94903 |
| Jean Jacques Blanc |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
IROBOT CORPORATION, 8 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
| Elisha W Finney |
director |
C/O VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC, 3100 HANSEN WAY M/S E-327, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Glen Daniel Weinstein |
officer: VP and General Counsel |
IROBOT CORPORATION, 63 SOUTH AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803 |
| Russell J Campanello |
officer: SVP Human Resources |
C/O PHASE FORWARD INCORPORATED, 77 FOURTH AVENUE, WALTHAM X1 02451 |
| Michelle Stacy |
director |
33 COFFEE LANE, WATERBURY VT 05676 |
| Timothy Saeger |
officer: EVP Engineering |
C/O IROBOT CORPORATION, 8 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730 |
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