Keros Therapeutics (Keros Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Keros Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Keros Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Keros Therapeutics (Keros Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Keros Therapeutics Inc (NAS:KROS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1050 Waltham Street, Suite 302, Lexington, MA, USA, 02421

Website

https://www.kerostx.com

Keros Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for patients suffering from hematological, pulmonary, and cardiovascular disorders with high unmet medical needs. The company's protein therapeutic product candidate, KER-050, is being developed for the treatment of low blood cell counts, or cytopenias, including anemia and thrombocytopenia, in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes, or MDS, and in patients with myelofibrosis.

Executives

Keith Regnante	officer: Chief Financial Officer	733 CONCORD AVENUE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Alpna Seth	director	614 MCKINLEY PLACE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Jennifer Lachey	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 120, BUILDING E, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Christopher Rovaldi	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ACCELERON PHARMA INC., 128 SIDNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Julius Knowles	director	C/O KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 120, BUILDING E, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Simon Peter Cooper	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 99 HAYDEN AVE., BUILDING E, SUITE 120, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Claudia Ordonez	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O KEROS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 120, BUILDING E, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Mary Ann Gray	director	201 W 70TH ST, SUITE 23K, NEW YORK NY 10023
Pontifax Management 4 G.p. (2015) Ltd.	10 percent owner	14 SHENKAR STREET, BEIT OFEK, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 46140
Tomer Kariv	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ARNO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ROUTE 31 NORTH, SUITE 104, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822
Ran Nussbaum	director, 10 percent owner	C/O KITE PHARMA, INC., 2225 COLORADO AVENUE, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Carl L Gordon	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jasbir Seehra	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ELOXX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 950 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Arkin Bio Ventures Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	6 HACHOSHLIM STREET, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 4672406