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Coliseum Acquisition (Coliseum Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is Coliseum Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Coliseum Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Coliseum Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Coliseum Acquisition (Coliseum Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Coliseum Acquisition Corp (NAS:MITA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
IOAC THCP CSLM GIA SZZL QFTA SLAC CFFE PORT EGGF PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
80 Pine Street, Suite 3202, New York, NY, USA, 10005
Website
https://www.coliseumacq.com
Coliseum Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Walter E Skowronski director 6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817
Roland Rapp director 27442 PORTOLA PARKWAY, SUITE 200, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Charles Wert officer: Chief Executive Officer 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10166
Kenneth Rivers director C/O COLISEUM ACQUISITION CORP., 1180 NORTH TOWN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89144
Oanh Truong officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O COLISEUM ACQUISITION CORP., 1180 NORTH TOWN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89144
Harry L. You director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Andrew R Heyer director 501 MADISON AVENUE, FLOOR 5, NEW YORK NY 10019
James Lanzone director 3000 CLEARVIEW WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Coliseum Acquisition Sponsor Llc 10 percent owner 80 PINE STREET SUITE 3202, NEW YORK NY 10005
Daniel Haimovic director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 80 PINE STREET, SUITE 3202, NEW YORK NY 10005
Andrew Fishkoff officer: COO / General Counsel 80 PINE STREET, SUITE 3202, NEW YORK NY 10005
Jason Beren officer: Chief Financial Officer 80 PINE STREET, SUITE 3202, NEW YORK NY 10005
Romitha Mally director 80 PINE STREET, SUITE 3202, NEW YORK NY 10005
Ezra Kucharz director 80 PINE STREET, SUITE 3202, NEW YORK NY 10005
Jason W. Stein director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 80 PINE STREET, SUITE 3202, NEW YORK NY 10005